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Sep 26

Who knows where the market goes from here, or the economy. Here in the US and abroad - it’s a big uncertainty. The bailout bill is pending, but even its promoters are saying - we don’t know if it will work, but at least it will postpone the “apocalypse”. Those who did stay on the sidelines, might still hold enough cash and try to profit from the day after. The moment where the rest of us have given up or gone broke with stock market investments.

The biggest problem with a bottom fishing approach is that you can never know if your target investment has really reached rock bottom. Have all the weak hands really gone - are the short sellers ready to cover and move on. It becomes even more complicated when the entire market is discussed. A market which declines based on real economic variables and political news is even harder to predict regardless of the technical indicators. While momentum investors rely on the knowledge that their intended investment or trade has thus far appreciated nicely and there’s little reason it should reverse - bottom fishers rely on “instinct” and “volume” and “pain” indicators. The reality is that at the bottom there’s mainly volatility and some of it is triggered as randomly as the news bits that are associated with the move.

For those who cannot resist - attached to this post is a scale-in spread sheet which shows how through several scale-in moves - there are potential bottom fishing trades that can work (if the assumptions are met). It also proves that to bottom fish - you need to start very very small in relation to your available capital, and prepare to scale in with much larger positions.

Download here: bottom fishing calc.zip

Please read the disclaimer at the bottom of the right panel of this blog…
Cheers!

Aug 18

As promised, I added a page to collect and highlight the relevant posts on how we spend less than we earn. How we implement “Financial responsibility, changing one’s financial path from consuming own savings to growing”.

To reach the page click on the top on Our “Secret” or click here.

In that page you will find links backs to my posts on how we spend less than we earn and how our family has agreed together on our system. You may add comments for the page on this post.

Cheers!

Jun 15

On the previous post I discussed the basic rules we keep in our family to spend less than we earn. Here I’ll present the template spread-sheet we use and how.

To recap, when you intend on spending less than you earn:

  1. Calculate your “available flexible living sum”.
  2. Devote some of this sum to your savings and investments based on your goals.
  3. Divide the rest between 3 parts of the month.
  4. When spending, spend on whatever you want, but when the 10 days budget is spent – stop spending until the next 10 days.

I created a template in excel, and then I import it into sheet.zoho.com. I find that site to be very similar to excel. Using an online spread-sheet allows me and my wife to track together our spending without worrying about different versions residing on different computers at home or at work. Wherever we are we can log in and update. We can always peek and see if we have enough money to spend.

The best thing about keeping the spread-sheet online is the ability to check up and update from wherever. From work, from home and on the road.

Budget-Templatge.zipbudget-snapshot

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Some people use Microsoft Money or Quicken to track their spending and balance their checking accounts. I find Microsoft Money to be useful for balancing my checking account and predicting my cash-flow, but as far as budgeting is concerned I find it almost useless. I don’t need a tool to tell me how much I spent on different categories, or that I didn’t categorize something. What matters for the purpose of spending less than you earn is not what you spend your money on, but when.

We time our spendings, not limit it. The spreadsheet allows us to do so dynamically enough - without over-reaching and complicating things with software like Microsoft Money. If our plan changes, if we modify the way we budget, it’s a spreadsheet and it is easy enough to change.

I hope this was useful for you and your family, let me know. Do comment and share with your friends
Cheers!

Jun 14

We’ve all heard about getting rich slowly techniques. The key point in trying to do so is spending less than you earn. Once you have achieved that, you can start eliminating debt, growing your savings, start investing and possibly someday get rich.

Without delving into my personal story, before generalizing my spread sheets, I thought it might be proper to lay out in the shortest and simplest way what it is we do to spend less than we earn – and thus meet our goals and live richly.

Before you plan and implement what I suggest here, imagine spending a couple of days a month living like the poorest man in your neighborhood. Imagine you have no money for the next couple of days and you need to spend the last 100$ you have in your pocket to stock up for basic things you and your family can survive on. For us, this means always having piles of the cheapest rice and pasta. If we don’t have enough money to buy a thing, we can still cook some white rice. Like the title says, I’m fiscally concerned.

Now start asking yourself some questions about what you earn, and how it is spent:

  1. Write down all of the expected annual income your family makes, and divide it by 12 regardless of the month to month fluctuations due to number of working days or other variables. This sum should include the amounts you get after tax deductions.
  2. Write down all of the recurring expenses you cannot control. Including monthly-quarterly-yearly bills. This includes home (mortgage or rent),cars’ license plate renewals, average cash withdraws from ATM, loan payments, existing credit debt payments (above minimum – enough to pay off someday). This does not including any items for which you go to a store for, or which you can choose to skip for months. Again, reach a yearly sum and divide it by 12.
  3. Subtracting the monthly recurring expenses from the average monthly expected income - the remainder should be considered the living expenses you still have some control over. This is the sum where we will exercise our flexibility. I will refer to this sum as “available flexible living sum”, or “the living sum”.

I’ll pause here and stress something out, you have to be honest with yourself and write real numbers. If the sum you reach at item 3 is less than 900$ then I think you should consider ways to reduce your “uncontrollable expenses”. This is your food and gasoline money and you have to be able to pay for it. Cancel some home services, relocate to a cheaper place, get another job or a raise – because whatever you do, you need to have enough to get by – and that money must be earned, not borrowed.

Only from here can we start cutting the income pie:

  1. Dedicate a fixed amount into your deferred goals. Take some percentage off the living sum and put it into some savings. I’ll leave the discussion of such saving to some other time… for us, it goes into a high yielding money market – and we spend a fixed amount of it annually to vacate. We also allocate it for other goals… again, I’ll discuss this elsewhere. On our long term plan we plan on increasing this amount and have detailed why such an increase will happen (raise, stop some fixed payment, buckle down).
  2. Split the remainder into 3 sums, and allocate those sums to 3 parts of the month, typically 10 days each, except the last third of the month which could be longer. Be strict with yourself, you can buy or spend that third of the flexible living sum however way you want, but when that 10 days budget is used up enforce virtual abstinence and don’t buy a thing.
  3. We use a single credit card we pay in full each month. Every purchase me or my wife makes we record on an online excel sheet, and compare it to the card’s online records so we can’t really miss out and lie to ourselves.

What?! Wait – what did I just say? Well, that’s the point – you need to think of your money like cell-phone minutes, you can carry them over, but over usage should be considered very punishing.

You need to prepare yourself as a family to a situation where there could be 3 to 7 days where you “virtually” don’t have any money – even if the bank statement says you do. Use canned food – store bulk products and live like a cheap bastard. For only a short number of days, it can definitely be done.

And that’s the “secret”. We do and buy whatever we want. It’s not a question of “if”, it is a question of when. We don’t buy when we can’t, but only a few days away we assure ourselves that we can.

Notice I didn’t budget for expense types. It doesn’t matter if we go to a theater and dine out every night, if we can – it’s our privilege to enjoy what we earn. If we want to buy a sewing machine, we can – but if it takes away from the 10 days budget – we have to limit our selves after the purchase and wait until our self placed budgetary restrictions are met. No money means no money, even if the bank says otherwise.

Wow – that’s a shell of a nut that’s a bit bigger than I thought it will be. I’ll try to summarize this and post again as a standalone page on this website at some point.

Please comment, it’ll be much appreciated

Cheers